Let q be the measured amount of the isotope remaining after 3 years. Let h(q) be the half-life of the isotope that we calculate using q.
We measured q=0.9, but we want to know what the change in h is if q moves by 0.05. So, let Δq=±0.05, and let Δh be the corresponding change in h.
The linear approximation tells us
ΔhSo,∣Δh∣≈h′(0.9)Δq≈∣h′(0.9)∣∣Δq∣=h′(0.9)⋅0.05
This suggests a plan for solving the problem. We will find the equation h(q) giving the calculated half-life of the isotope based on the measurement q. Then, we will find h′(0.9). Finally, the equation ∣Δh∣=h′(0.9)⋅0.05 will tell us the change in h that corresponds with a change of 0.05 in our measurement.
Let us find the half-life of the isotope, if after three years q μg is remaining. The amount of the isotope present after t years is given by
Q(t)for some constant k. Let’s take t=0 to be the time when precisely one μg was present. ThenQ(t)After three years, q is the amount of the isotope remaining, soqq31Q(t)The half-life is the value of t for which Q(t)=21Q(0)=21.21log(21)−log2t=Q(0)e−kt=e−kt=e−k⋅3=e−k=(e−k)t=q3t=Q(t)=q3t=log(q3t)=3tlogq=logq−3log2
So, we calculate the half-life to be logq−3log2. This gives us our first goal: a function h(q) that tells us the calculated half-life of the element.
h(q)Following our plan, we find h′(0.9).h′(q)h′(0.9)Finally, as outlined in our plan, ∣Δh∣=logq−3log2=dqd{logq−3log2}=−3log2⋅dqd{(logq)−1}=−3log2⋅(−1)(logq)−2⋅q1=qlog2q3log2=0.9log2(0.9)3log2≈208=h′(0.9)⋅0.05=18log2(0.9)3log2≈10.4
If our measurement changes by ±0.05 μg, then we estimate our calculated half-life changes by about ±10.4 years. Since our measurement is accurate to within 0.05 μg, that means we estimate
our calculated half-life to be accurate to within about 10.4 years.
Remark: since h(0.9)=log0.9−3log2≈19.7, an absolute error of 10.4 years corresponds to a percentage error of 10019.710.4≈53%. The question did not specify absolute or percentage error. Since both make sense, you can use either one.